A famous Turkish proverb expresses similarities between relationship and a string – when a string is cut, it says, there is always a possibility to tie it again, but connecting both ends of the thread gives no option to avoid the knot. If that is the path Turkey chooses to take when it comes to Israel, Israel is in big trouble. But Turkey will not gain too much from the conflict either.
The Mavi Marmara affair was grasped as “The 9/11 of Israeli- Turkish relations,” a term used for manifesting the shock coming from Ankara after the incident. Despite all precautions, the Turks never dreamed the result of the flotilla would occur as they did.
The death of nine Turkish citizens from IDF-fire was taken as if it was a declaration of war. They were furious and made the Marmara incident a dead end for relations with Israel, unless the latter bowed down and apologized.
In addition, the Turks complained about extensive leaks of information in Israel (e.g. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s initial decision to apologize). Israel should have more carefully observed the importance the Turks attributed to the incident and its effect on bilateral ties. Israel should have also kept in mind two main things:
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and the AKP government are just part of the problem. Turkish society must be taken into consideration as well.
The responses following the Marmara raid were similar in all segments of Turkish society, creating a growing wave of criticism against Israel. True, AKP’s 2011 elections campaign was “Hedef 2023,” (Aim: 2023. Erdogan believes his government will still be ruling when the Turkish Republic celebrates its 100th anniversary) but no one can guarantee that of course. How can Israel bring back the Turks’ alliance as well as friendship on the day after Erdogan?
In the unusual diplomacy of the Middle East, especially when Israel can look at the great Turkish example, why does Jerusalem ignore the art of pragmatism? Why haven’t we learned from Erdogan how to negotiate and twist reality to satisfy our own needs and interests? Some believe that especially in this region, apologizing means humiliation, submission and a blow to “national pride.” But following the Turks, their famous pragmatism anchored in their days as an empire, did them only good. Why would Israel be interested in making it easier on Erdogan, who already called to lower the level of diplomatic relations in the past? Why should Israel give up on the staggering $2.6 billion the two nations exchange in trade every year? Why fall into the trap of Erdogan instead of learning from his tactic strategy? Israel must play a new, sharp, calculated game of diplomacy and let Turkey act first.
Israelmight emerge as the greater loser here, but Turkey will not carry the day either. Domestic criticism accompanied by heated rhetoric, coming especially from the opposition leading party CHP, on AKP’s decision, claiming that Erdogan’s “zero problem policy” does not prove itself on one hand, and the price, on the other hand, is just too high.
Turkey’s need for special military equipment required for combating the terrorist organization PKK, produced and made in Israel is a concern for Turkey, as well as losing trade and other options. Turkey’s current problems with Syria and the heated declarations against Turkey coming from Ahmadinejad, do not make the “zero problem policy” more relevant to this region.
Since AKP took control in Turkey, it has been trying to persuade the world, especially the West, that being at the same time a democratic and Muslim country is possible, Turkey has no tendencies of becoming “a second Iran” and that it can mediate between East and West. After downgrading the ties and threatening Israel with “extra measures,” Turkey will have to work harder on proving its “balanced policy” to us all.
Source:
Dr. Efrat Aviv
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