This reshuffle won't save Brown

Gordon Brown's last-gasp reshuffle will only succeed in dividing his new Cabinet from Labour's parliamentary party. Throughout the day the ministers to-ing and fro-ing from Downing Street will dominate the headlines, professing their loyalty to the prime minister. Analysts will be impressed by the rallying-round as they seek to isolate ex-work and pensions secretary James Purnell. And there will be many who believe the newly-invigorated Brown Cabinet could give the prime minister the energy he needs to continue struggling on into his final year in office.They will be wrong.For while Brown might lure some to support him with the promise of powerful positions, the divisions within the Labour party opened up this week are simply unsustainable.

Today's reshuffle will come against the backdrop of calamitous local elections results. Labour is likely to lose all four of the councils it holds and receive a "drubbing", as one backbencher put it, across the country.

Worse still for Brown is the insidious plot among backbenchers to force him from Downing Street. The 'hotmail' plot, conceived in secret and currently gestating in cyberspace, has given backbenchers the opportunity to make their voices heard. Many of the Labour backbenchers in the last 48 hours have indicated they believe Brown has to quit. One told that his position is "irretrievable". Another said he "has to go".

Neither had yet decided whether they would sign the email, pledging to wait until after the parliamentary Labour party's meeting on Monday evening before making a last judgment against their leader. Between then and now three factors may prevent Labour backbenchers from acting against Brown.

Sunday sees the European elections following today's local results. A stronger performance than expected for Labour could persuade many to stay their hand. An appearance by the prime minister at Monday night's meeting, and other efforts by Downing Street emanations to persuade waverers, might help defuse the plot.

Then there's the reshuffle. Every time a minister opens his or her mouth backing Brown the rate at which his authority crumbles slows. A united new Cabinet may end the current crisis. That's what Downing Street wants. But is it what his party wants?

Westminster's party system has an extraordinary effect on the men and women who, usually outspoken on every topic under the sun, acknowledge the importance of unity. Dissent and frustration against Brown's fumblings have simmered throughout his two years in power. His inability to present himself as leading the way, rather than reacting to events, has left many disillusioned.

The handling of the expenses crisis has angered many. His constitutional renewal bill would be more credible if Brown's white paper on this topic announced soon after he moved into No 10 had been followed through, one MP told. The effect of all this has been, against all the logic of the need to stifle division, a catastrophic undermining of the party and Brown's leadership. The old Brownite-Blairite divisions, kept undercover by the lure of power over so many years, are finally bubbling over as Labour heads towards a massive general election defeat.

Labour backbenchers may not carry out their threat to challenge the commanding heights of the government. But whether they do or not the convulsing party has already hopelessly damaged itself. Even if Brown survives for now, his Cabinet will be separated by a huge gulf from ordinary Labour MPs.The gaping wounds, far from healing in the run-up to the general election, will fester and rot.It's too late for Labour. They can bring in a new leader but by doing so hopelessly compromise their credibility. The alternative is not the weak Brown we've seen in recent months but a fatally wounded, limping beast.

Either way, the events of recent days have sent the party plummeting into the abyss